The MLB Stretch Run is all about the starting pitcher
The current lull in all but one of the MLB division title races is merely a long, slow sigh of relief before the approaching storm of chaos that is expected to break out right at the start of October.
Five of the six leading MLB divisions enter Saturday’s games with at least a four-game lead, so the regular season has lost some of its appeal over the past three weeks.
The only exception to the calm in the division is the American League East: The Baltimore Orioles have a narrow half-game lead over the New York Yankees.
The Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and the Houston Astros in the AL West were 4 1/2 games ahead. In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies had an eight-game lead in the East, while the Milwaukee Brewers in the Central were nine games ahead. The Los Angeles Dodgers, by comparison, had a razor-thin lead in the West, four games ahead.
Division chases aren’t necessarily a must right now, and maybe that’s only appropriate. Recent playoff history tells us that if we’re looking for that dramatic sprint to the championship, we’d be better off looking elsewhere.
In 2023, two wild-card teams met in the World Series when the Arizona Diamondbacks faced the eventual champion Texas Rangers. It was only the third time in history that two wild-card teams competed for the title.
When the 2022 playoffs were expanded to three wildcard teams, the likelihood of that only increased. The 12-team playoffs were created as part of a five-year collective bargaining agreement that expires after the 2026 season.
During this first expanded season in 2022, the Philadelphia Phillies were the NL’s third wild card and they turned that opportunity into a spot in the World Series.
Wildcard teams have a greater sense of urgency, or so the theory goes. Since they’re chasing the team ahead of them in the division while also fending off any wildcard threats, their sense of urgency is greater. They’ve been in playoff mode longer.
This season, however, paints a slightly different picture. The loser of the Orioles’ divisional race against the Yankees will almost certainly be a wild-card player. The other two wild-card contenders – the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals – are not as threatened by the wild-card players behind them.
In the National League, the NL West is expected to have two wild card teams, with the Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres currently holding spots. The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are expected to battle for third place.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the six-team AL playoff field is essentially set. Seven of the six teams appear to be decided in the NL, but if the upstart Chicago Cubs can catch up to the pack, they could have the momentum they need to hit the ground running in October.
If you believe the theory that late-season momentum is a key indicator of who has a good chance of making the World Series, then the chase for the AL East should be of paramount importance – not who wins the division, but who doesn’t.
It’s not that the Orioles or Yankees would prefer a three-game, win-or-lose wild-card series, but the team in that spot would get a no-delay start to the playoffs, unlike the top two teams in each division who receive a bye.
In the everyday world of baseball, there are advantages to not having a significant break in the season. Winning a wild-card series provides a catapult that a division winner doesn’t have.
Sounds absurd? Sure. But that’s exactly how it worked last season.
The Rangers swept the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles with five straight wins to open the playoffs with a five-game sweep that clinched a spot in the ALCS. The Diamondbacks outclassed the Dodgers in the NLDS after rolling over the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card round while winning their first five playoff games. The 2022 Phillies followed the same path.
An NFL team might welcome a playoff bye with open arms, while an MLB team would accept it with some trepidation.
So watch these final three weeks of the regular season to see who has the most momentum… and also who has the healthiest pitchers.